Subtitles for "The Manpollo Project" in Bulgarian

Back to Translation Index

Note: Please read the editing guidelines before you begin editing.

01:00:04:19 , 01:00:10:26 , Това е филма "The Manpollo Project" и е част от допълнителният пакет серии към оригиналният филм "How It All Ends".

01:00:10:26 , 01:00:13:19 , Този филм е в отговор на притесненията на тези които смятат, че

01:00:13:19 , 01:00:17:26 , аз съм опростил някои неща неподходящо в моят "Risk Management" подход към климатичните промени

01:00:17:26 , 01:00:20:27 , представен като таблица във филма "How It All Ends",

01:00:20:27 , 01:00:23:08 , и че това преопростяване не може да бъде пренебрегнато

01:00:23:08 , 01:00:26:10 , защото това значително ще промени извода от нашия анализ.

01:00:26:10 , 01:00:30:15 , Обобщено, бях обвинен, че съм бил некомпетентен или манипулативен като преопростявам нещата.

01:00:30:15 , 01:00:31:29 , Ето как ще отговоря на това.

01:00:31:29 , 01:00:35:26 , Ако мислите, че съм препоростил неправилно, сега ще се погрижа вече да не правим така,

01:00:35:26 , 01:00:39:11 , като представим цялата сложност, без да избягваме нито една подробност.

01:00:39:11 , 01:00:41:02 , И така, пригответе се.

01:00:41:02 , 01:00:44:26 , Относно таблицата, често чувам възражения като: "Не е толкова просто

01:00:44:26 , 01:00:48:05 , Къде са междинните колони между "бездействие" и "действие с всички сили"?

01:00:48:05 , 01:00:51:04 , Ами ако има промяна на климата,но не ние сме причината?

01:00:51:04 , 01:00:54:25 , Ами ако има промяна на климата, и ние сме причината, но нашите действия не могат да я спрат?

01:00:54:25 , 01:00:59:27 , Или дори го правят по-лошо? Не трябва ли да добавим повече колони и редове да отразим всички тези възможности?"

01:00:59:27 , 01:01:02:06 , Добре, Всички те са валидни, но преди да ги разгледаме,

01:01:02:06 , 01:01:05:11 , ще отбележа,че ако първо сте гледали филма "The Mechanics of Climate Change",

01:01:05:11 , 01:01:10:12 , "Scare Tactics", и "The Solution" най-вероятно ще видите колко невъзможни са последните 3 сценария—

01:01:10:12 , 01:01:13:02 , или, колко е ясно, че ние сме тези които го причиняват,

01:01:13:02 , 01:01:15:02 , и, че нашата действия могат да бъдат само от полза—

01:01:15:02 , 01:01:17:23 , и, че няма нужда да се притесняваме, че трябва да ги включим като редове

01:01:17:23 , 01:01:20:14 , преди да използваме таблицата за да вземем решение какво да правим.

01:01:20:14 , 01:01:24:28 , Също така, независимо от това колко науката, която изложих, в тези три филма, намалява вашите притеснения,

01:01:24:28 , 01:01:29:00 , филмът "Risk Management" показва, че най-добрите научни организации в света

01:01:29:00 , 01:01:32:23 , заявяват публично и ясно: да, земята се затопля,

01:01:32:23 , 01:01:36:14 , да, хората го причиняват, и да, нашите действия ще имат ефект,

01:01:36:14 , 01:01:38:20 , и то положителен, но по-добре да побързаме.

01:01:38:20 , 01:01:44:22 , и така, краткия отговор на възраженията е: кои сме аз и ти да спорим с най-добрите учени относно науката?

01:01:44:22 , 01:01:48:29 , Но някои от вас все още не вярват на обективността или компетентността на тези научни организации,

01:01:48:29 , 01:01:51:04 , и така нека разгледаме всички тези "ами ако",

01:01:51:04 , 01:01:54:00 , и ги добавим в нашата преопростена таблица.

01:01:54:00 , 01:01:56:00 , Готови? Започваме.

01:01:56:00 , 01:01:58:00 , По дяволите, тя експлодира!

01:01:58:00 , 01:02:01:26 , Отгоре заменихме противопоставящите се две колони на действие и бездействие

01:02:01:26 , 01:02:06:21 , с градация от пет различни колони вариращи от действие с пълна сила до абсолютно бездействие.

01:02:06:21 , 01:02:10:28 , Надолу имаме пет фактора които да вземем предвид:

01:02:10:28 , 01:02:12:26 , Едно е: Истина ли е глобалното затопляне или не?

01:02:12:26 , 01:02:16:24 , Две,  ако е истина дали е от човешка дейност, или "причинен от хората"?

01:02:16:24 , 01:02:21:07 , и Три, какъв ефект биха имали нашите действия, положителен, отрицателен или никакъв?

01:02:21:07 , 01:02:23:25 , И така отстрани и надолу имаме девет различни сценария:

01:02:23:25 , 01:02:29:10 , Първият е, глобалното затопляне истинско, и то е причинено от хората, и нашите действия ще имат положителен ефект.

01:02:29:10 , 01:02:32:23 , Или пък, истинско е, и ние го причиняваме, но нашите действия няма да имат ефект.

01:02:32:23 , 01:02:36:04 , Или пък, истинско е, ние сме го причинили, но нашите действия ще го направят още по-лошо.

01:02:36:04 , 01:02:40:12 , След това имаме, истинско е, не ние го причиняваме, но нашите действия имат положителен ефект.

01:02:40:12 , 01:02:45:05 , Истинско е, не ние го причиняваме, но нашите действия нямат никакъв ефект.

01:02:45:05 , 01:02:49:08 , Истинско е, не ние го причиняваме, и можем да го прецакаме още повече с действията си.

01:02:49:08 , 01:02:52:26 , И след това по надолу имаме глобалното затопляне не съществува изобщо, т.е това е лъжа.

01:02:52:26 , 01:02:56:00 , Безсмислено е да питаме дали е причинено от хората или не, ако всъщност не съществува.

01:02:56:00 , 01:02:58:04 , И след това положителен, отрицателен и неутрален ефект тук.

01:02:58:04 , 01:03:01:28 , Ще забележите че нашите три фактора от две по две по три

01:03:01:28 , 01:03:05:24 , се получава дванадесет, но ни е ги свихме до девет, защото безсмислено да обсъждаме

01:03:05:24 , 01:03:08:18 , дали е причинено от човека или не ако не съществува.

01:03:08:18 , 01:03:13:12 , И така получаваме 45 клетки, и във всяка от тези 45 клетки

01:03:13:12 , 01:03:17:07 , ще сложим различни икономически, екологични, социални,политически, и здравни сценарии.

01:03:17:07 , 01:03:20:22 , Ако си спомняте дискусията за "очаквана стойност" от филма "Risk Management",

01:03:20:22 , 01:03:25:08 , вероятно смятате, че трябва да сложим към всяка клетка число, което да отрязява последствията

01:03:25:08 , 01:03:28:02 , ако този сценарии се случи—в този случай, колко ще ни струва.

01:03:28:02 , 01:03:34:09 , Не само икономическа цена,но и някакъв вид количествена мярка на различни видове загуби или ползи.

01:03:34:09 , 01:03:39:15 , Но ако си спомняте, във този филм, аз отбелязах, че всяка клетка всъщност съдържа много възможни последици,

01:03:39:15 , 01:03:41:29 , и за да опростим смятането на нашата "очаквана стойност",

01:03:41:29 , 01:03:44:21 , ние преднамерено пренебрегнахме многото възможни последици,

01:03:44:21 , 01:03:48:01 , и вместо това взехме правдоподобния най-лош вариант.

01:03:48:01 , 01:03:50:10 , Тук горе и тук долу са тези които разглеждахме основно.

01:03:50:10 , 01:03:55:14 , Това накара някои хора, който гледаха опростената таблица, да твърдят че колона Б е по-добрият избор,

01:03:55:14 , 01:03:57:22 , защото те забравят че това е само опростяване,

01:03:57:22 , 01:04:01:24 , и следователно предполагат, че избирайки колона А сме обречени на икономическа криза,

01:04:01:24 , 01:04:04:03 , без значение от истиността на глобалната промяна на климата,

01:04:04:03 , 01:04:07:24 , защото ние сложихме икономически последици тук горе, като част от нашите разходи,

01:04:07:24 , 01:04:11:27 , и следователно те трябва да се появят тук долу, следователно избирайки колона А ни обрича на икономическа криза,

01:04:11:27 , 01:04:15:27 , следователно Б е по-добрия избор, защото само тя съдържа клетка която хареваме как изглежда.

01:04:15:27 , 01:04:19:28 , Well, in order to address that, we just need to point out that

01:04:19:28 , 01:04:24:29 , once we unpack the simplicity, it's clear from the videos "Risk Management" and "Get What You Want",

01:04:24:29 , 01:04:29:25 , that choosing column A only brings with it the possibility of economic harm, not the certainty.

01:04:29:25 , 01:04:33:02 , As you saw in those videos, long and conscientious searching on my part

01:04:33:02 , 01:04:38:20 , turned up exactly zero economic doomsday scenarios from credible sources for this box.

01:04:38:20 , 01:04:44:06 , All the economic doomsday stories turned out to be simple conjecture

01:04:44:06 , 01:04:47:27 , from people at the very bottom of our credibility spectrum.

01:04:47:27 , 01:04:53:16 , And in fact, a number of quite credible sources, including industry leaders in the US Climate Action Partnership,

01:04:53:16 , 01:04:58:02 , assert that column A quite likely leads to economic growth.

01:04:58:02 , 01:05:03:15 , So that should get us over our economic phobias surrounding column A and the boogeyman of government action.

01:05:03:15 , 01:05:08:13 , So, if we're sincerely trying to not oversimplify here, what we need to do get a little complicated.

01:05:08:13 , 01:05:12:14 , Fortunately for us, the tool of expected value is scalable, and can be applied recursively.

01:05:12:14 , 01:05:17:02 , So what we'll do is go inside of each box and look at the full range of possible consequences—

01:05:17:02 , 01:05:21:01 , say in here all the way from global depression to wild economic boom—

01:05:21:01 , 01:05:24:08 , and then we'll assign numerical values to each one of those possible consequences.

01:05:24:08 , 01:05:27:13 , Now to stay backwardly compatible with our previous oversimplification,

01:05:27:13 , 01:05:31:01 , let's still represent consequences that cause suffering as positive numbers—

01:05:31:01 , 01:05:33:11 , the greater the magnitude, the greater the suffering or impact—

01:05:33:11 , 01:05:36:10 , and let's set zero as neutral—no deviation from the norm.

01:05:36:10 , 01:05:39:00 , Counterintuitively, that gives us negative numbers for good consequences,

01:05:39:00 , 01:05:41:03 , like an economy boosted by innovation,

01:05:41:03 , 01:05:45:08 , but we can handle that. That's why we're here, instead of stopping at the oversimplified four-boxer, right?

01:05:45:08 , 01:05:48:23 , So next, we'll multiply each of the possible consequences in the box

01:05:48:23 , 01:05:51:03 , by the probability of each of those happening,

01:05:51:03 , 01:05:54:13 , and sum those up to get the expected value for that box as a whole.

01:05:54:13 , 01:05:56:23 , Now that gives us the single number we're looking for

01:05:56:23 , 01:05:59:02 , to give as the consequence for one box.

01:05:59:02 , 01:06:01:26 , And that replaces the worst case scenario that we'd assumed

01:06:01:26 , 01:06:06:02 , to use as a consequence for that box in our previous oversimplified graph.

01:06:06:02 , 01:06:08:13 , Which is what caused some people to be confused

01:06:08:13 , 01:06:11:20 , and conclude that column A doomed us to economic harm no matter what.

01:06:11:20 , 01:06:14:26 , So we've taken care of that problem because we've introduced the probabilities back in,

01:06:14:26 , 01:06:18:14 , and there's no dooming anywhere, it's just probabilities and an expected value.

01:06:18:14 , 01:06:20:26 , Then we'll calculate the expected value for the whole column,

01:06:20:26 , 01:06:25:17 , by multiplying the consequences of each box—again, really just the calculated expected value of that box—

01:06:25:17 , 01:06:28:01 , by its probability taken from the rows on the side.

01:06:28:01 , 01:06:31:23 , And then we'll sum up those nine products to get the expected value of the column as a whole.

01:06:31:23 , 01:06:35:26 , You'll recognize that's the exact same process of taking the sum of a series of products

01:06:35:26 , 01:06:40:12 , that we did inside of each box, illustrating the very slick recursive nature of the expected value.

01:06:40:12 , 01:06:41:18 , It's a pretty cool tool.

01:06:41:18 , 01:06:45:12 , Then we'll move over and do that exact same process for the next column, and the next and the next.

01:06:45:12 , 01:06:49:10 , That will eventually give us an expected value assigned to each level of potential action,

01:06:49:10 , 01:06:51:25 , and we finally get the satisfaction of simply sitting back,

01:06:51:25 , 01:06:55:20 , looking at five numbers and asking: which one is the closest to negative infinity?

01:06:55:20 , 01:06:57:25 , And that's the column that's the best choice for us.

01:06:57:25 , 01:07:00:28 , Because that will tell us how much suffering we can expect if we choose that column.

01:07:00:28 , 01:07:05:13 , Now remember again that to stay consistent with our original grid-for-the-masses four-boxer,

01:07:05:13 , 01:07:09:18 , zero is neutral, positive numbers are suffering, and negative numbers are actually benefits,

01:07:09:18 , 01:07:13:12 , so the greatest benefit comes to the number that is farthest to the left on a number line.

01:07:13:12 , 01:07:17:27 , The closest to negative infinity, instead of talking larger or smaller because then you get confused with sign and magnitude.

01:07:17:27 , 01:07:19:14 , And remember there are no guarantees,

01:07:19:14 , 01:07:22:04 , because there were probabilities of probabilities layered in here.

01:07:22:04 , 01:07:25:09 , But the expected value is a well-proven tool, used by businesses all the time,

01:07:25:09 , 01:07:27:20 , and it's the best we've got here. Okay, let's get started.

01:07:27:20 , 01:07:31:26 , Oh, and you'll recognize, of course that the probabilities of all of our rows

01:07:31:26 , 01:07:36:25 , are going to need to sum up to exactly one, if we are going to be thorough and not neglect any scenarios.

01:07:36:25 , 01:07:40:29 , That one of course represents the fact that we have a 100% chance of something being true.

01:07:40:29 , 01:07:44:00 , So if they sum to one that tells us that we haven't missed any cases,

01:07:44:00 , 01:07:47:00 , we haven't oversimplified and dropped a case about what might happen.

01:07:47:00 , 01:07:50:13 , Also it means that the absolute probability that we've distributed across these rows

01:07:50:13 , 01:07:55:23 , will handily function as relative probabilities as in "how much more likely is this row that this row?"

01:07:55:23 , 01:07:57:12 , Oh, and one more thing.

01:07:57:12 , 01:08:01:17 , You know how we, to put this process inside each box,

01:08:01:17 , 01:08:06:07 , we will need to do the whole range of possible economic consequences for a single box.

01:08:06:07 , 01:08:09:28 , We'll need to do that identical process for each of the identical factors besides economic,

01:08:09:28 , 01:08:13:00 , because there are probably things besides economic numbers

01:08:13:00 , 01:08:15:00 , that we might want to factor into our happiness, don't you think?

01:08:15:00 , 01:08:17:29 , But for the first time through I suggest we limit ourselves to the factors of

01:08:17:29 , 01:08:22:15 , economic, environmental, social, political, and public health scenarios,

01:08:22:15 , 01:08:24:26 , because those will probably be the easiest for us to quantify,

01:08:24:26 , 01:08:27:08 , and probably have the greatest bearing on our standard of living.

01:08:27:08 , 01:08:29:14 , At the end, if we have a close tie between two columns,

01:08:29:14 , 01:08:32:20 , then we can go back in and add some other factors in order to refine our answer.

01:08:32:20 , 01:08:35:21 , So we're not oversimplifying here, we're just doing a first past through,

01:08:35:21 , 01:08:39:17 , and if the answer is not clear then we can go back in and add some more factors.

01:08:39:17 , 01:08:43:28 , And for each one of those factors, lets break it into a reasonable 5 cases,

01:08:43:28 , 01:08:48:02 , so for the economic consequences of this box we can say we've got 5 cases

01:08:48:02 , 01:08:51:18 , all the way from global depression, to wild economic boom,

01:08:51:18 , 01:08:53:22 , neutral, and then two intermediate cases there.

01:08:53:22 , 01:08:57:12 , So that gives us five cases, times five factors, times 45 boxes,

01:08:57:12 , 01:09:01:29 , or a little over 1100 numbers we've got to agree on to quantify consequences,

01:09:01:29 , 01:09:04:12 , and an equal number of probabilities to assign.

01:09:04:12 , 01:09:08:06 , So I'm going to have to write kind of small because we're going to have to fit in 2200 numbers on this.

01:09:08:06 , 01:09:09:23 , You might have to squint, sorry about that.

01:09:09:23 , 01:09:12:07 , And you might want to go get an energy drink, cuz this may take a while.

01:09:12:07 , 01:09:13:03 , Okay, ready?

01:09:13:10 , 01:09:14:26 , Just kiddin'!

01:09:14:26 , 01:09:17:18 , There's no way I'm qualified to quantify all that!

01:09:17:18 , 01:09:19:02 , And neither, probably, are you.

01:09:19:02 , 01:09:20:02 , I mean, look at us—

01:09:20:02 , 01:09:23:08 , we're interacting through homemade videos and derisive comments, for God's Sake!

01:09:23:08 , 01:09:26:26 , If this is to be done—really done, and not "oversimplified"—

01:09:26:26 , 01:09:31:07 , why on Earth would we be satisfied with a hack job or armchair analysis?

01:09:31:07 , 01:09:34:11 , This analysis is how a business who knew their business would do it—

01:09:34:11 , 01:09:36:13 , like a casino, or an insurance company.

01:09:36:13 , 01:09:39:21 , Except they wouldn't be listening to you and me and our opinions on what they should do,

01:09:39:21 , 01:09:43:13 , because I suspect it's actually even way more complex than what I just described.

01:09:43:13 , 01:09:46:19 , What they would do is hire really smart people with Ph.D.s,

01:09:46:19 , 01:09:49:06 , tell them to eliminate their biases as much as possible,

01:09:49:06 , 01:09:50:27 , and then turn them loose on the problem.

01:09:50:27 , 01:09:53:10 , So if making a profit is important enough for a company

01:09:53:10 , 01:09:55:23 , to hire the best to do their expected value calculations,

01:09:55:23 , 01:09:58:10 , how come we're not doing that in this case, for global climate change,

01:09:58:10 , 01:10:01:07 , which might have slightly more at stake than one business's profits?

01:10:01:07 , 01:10:03:18 , So if you're serious about getting to the truth of the matter,

01:10:03:18 , 01:10:06:18 , and not just taking potshots to buy some time and preserve your opinion,

01:10:06:18 , 01:10:08:17 , then let's hire the best and the brightest we've got,

01:10:08:17 , 01:10:12:13 , and have them work with the greatest urgency on this ridiculous grid, numbers and all.

01:10:12:13 , 01:10:13:11 , I'm serious.

01:10:13:11 , 01:10:16:26 , Let's draft the best scientists, political economists, historians, and analysts

01:10:16:26 , 01:10:19:07 , on the planet to bring their greatest effort to bear,

01:10:19:07 , 01:10:23:18 , to work round the clock on what our best scientists already say may be the greatest challenge we've ever faced.

01:10:23:18 , 01:10:27:04 , I'm talking a project on the scale of the Manhattan project and the Apollo project put together.

01:10:27:04 , 01:10:29:08 , We could even call it the Manpollo Project if you like,

01:10:29:08 , 01:10:31:28 , and we would give it the greatest national urgency and resources.

01:10:31:28 , 01:10:34:21 , Because you and I may not be qualified to do that ridiculous grid,

01:10:34:21 , 01:10:38:24 , but as citizens, what we are qualified to do—and in fact are responsible for doing—

01:10:38:24 , 01:10:41:29 , is deciding how much resources to put into calculating the answer.

01:10:41:29 , 01:10:43:18 , Isn't that what government is for—

01:10:43:18 , 01:10:46:21 , to bring to bear our collective time, expertise, and resources

01:10:46:21 , 01:10:49:18 , to accomplish what you and I cannot accomplish individually?

01:10:49:18 , 01:10:52:08 , You wouldn't remove your own appendix. You wouldn't try your own law case.

01:10:52:08 , 01:10:55:14 , We let the experts do the details—which you and I are not qualified to do—

01:10:55:14 , 01:10:57:14 , and we retain our supervisory role,

01:10:57:14 , 01:11:00:21 , examining the executive summary before signing off on a course of action

01:11:00:21 , 01:11:03:08 , that has the best expected value that they calculated.

01:11:03:08 , 01:11:04:29 , In fact, there's a silver bullet!

01:11:04:29 , 01:11:08:17 , Both sides of the debate will agree that we should have a Manpollo Project,

01:11:08:17 , 01:11:12:24 , and here's why: because each side thinks the project will get us closer to the truth,

01:11:12:24 , 01:11:15:25 , and dispel the untruths that the other side has spun.

01:11:15:25 , 01:11:18:22 , So we all want this, because everyone thinks they're right,

01:11:18:22 , 01:11:21:15 , and would love further ammunition to prove the other side wrong.

01:11:21:15 , 01:11:23:02 , Wouldn't that be worth the cost?

01:11:23:02 , 01:11:25:26 , Because a Manhattan Project is not going to cause a global depression.

01:11:25:26 , 01:11:29:29 , An Apollo Project is not going to bankrupt the US, or lead to government control of your life.

01:11:29:29 , 01:11:32:13 , So what's to lose? Really, what's to lose?

01:11:32:13 , 01:11:35:11 , If we have a Manpollo Project and it finds that human–caused climate change

01:11:35:11 , 01:11:37:19 , turned out to be bunk, or that we can't do anything about it.

01:11:37:19 , 01:11:41:11 , Hey—okay, we diverted some government jobs from one sector to another.

01:11:41:11 , 01:11:44:25 , Isn't reducing the uncertainty about this at least worth that cost?

01:11:45:10 , 01:11:47:04 , Let's not kid ourselves any more.

01:11:47:04 , 01:11:50:14 , You can ask about solar activity, or natural cycles, or proxy data,

01:11:50:14 , 01:11:53:14 , but the climate—and the economy—are way to complex for you or me

01:11:53:14 , 01:11:57:14 , to do armchair evaluation of this stuff in the face of so much peer–reviewed science.

01:11:57:14 , 01:11:59:26 , Let's get the big boys—and girls—on it.

01:11:59:26 , 01:12:01:01 , Don't we deserve that?

01:12:01:01 , 01:12:04:10 , I'm not talking about forming another commission to "study the problem further".

01:12:04:10 , 01:12:05:29 , We've been doing that for 20 years,

01:12:05:29 , 01:12:08:25 , and the statements from AAAS, NAS, and USCAP

01:12:08:25 , 01:12:10:19 , that I shared in the video "Risk Management"

01:12:10:19 , 01:12:12:17 , make it clear that that time is past.

01:12:12:17 , 01:12:16:10 , And you can't resort to "Well, that argument could be made against Giant Mutant Space Hamsters—

01:12:16:10 , 01:12:18:07 , so we'd better have a Hampollo Project to study it,

01:12:18:07 , 01:12:20:10 , because the possibility can't be dismissed."

01:12:20:10 , 01:12:24:03 , Climate change has a little more peer–reviewed science behind it already than the hamsters.

01:12:24:03 , 01:12:26:23 , In fact, faced with the statements from these organizations,

01:12:26:23 , 01:12:29:25 , if someone still argued that the idea of anthropogenic climate change

01:12:29:25 , 01:12:31:13 , can be dismissed out of hand,

01:12:31:13 , 01:12:35:03 , so that it's not even worth studying our options with a Manpollo Project,

01:12:35:03 , 01:12:37:11 , at that point people might start to view them a little bit like

01:12:37:11 , 01:12:39:18 , Saddam Hussein's Minister of Information—

01:12:39:18 , 01:12:43:09 , remember? The guy who denied the existence of the bombs falling around him.

01:12:43:21 , 01:12:46:06 , A Manpollo Project's mission would be to study the science,

01:12:46:06 , 01:12:48:04 , study the political economy, study the history,

01:12:48:04 , 01:12:50:22 , to not only come up with a whole range of possible scenarios,

01:12:50:22 , 01:12:52:19 , but to actually quantify each one.

01:12:52:19 , 01:12:55:14 , To come up with numbers for consequences—both positive and negative—

01:12:55:14 , 01:12:59:07 , and for probabilities, so that an expected value could be calculated that would

01:12:59:07 , 01:13:03:11 , end this tumultuous, ineffective political bedlam that surrounds the issue,

01:13:03:11 , 01:13:06:24 , which really should be decided by analysis, and not political rhetoric.

01:13:06:24 , 01:13:09:05 , The project would have to be well–respected enough

01:13:09:05 , 01:13:11:27 , by all that the public would place such confidence in it

01:13:11:27 , 01:13:15:11 , that we would all agree ahead of time to follow its recommendations,

01:13:15:11 , 01:13:16:28 , even if we didn't like them.

01:13:16:28 , 01:13:19:15 , We would all feel confident that the answer recommended

01:13:19:15 , 01:13:21:18 , was the one most likely to get us what we want,

01:13:21:18 , 01:13:24:14 , regardless of our individual political opinions.

01:13:24:14 , 01:13:27:17 , Because the physical world—which, in the end, is what this is about—

01:13:27:17 , 01:13:29:21 , isn't influenced by our opinions.

01:13:29:21 , 01:13:32:03 , It is only our actions which have impact.

01:13:32:03 , 01:13:35:05 , And currently, our actions are firmly in column B.

01:13:35:05 , 01:13:37:20 , If that's going to remain the case, don't you want to know—

01:13:37:20 , 01:13:41:14 , with as much confidence as you can—that that is, in fact, the best place to be?

01:13:41:14 , 01:13:45:17 , Wouldn't you rather be assured by a huge team of highly competent and unbiased experts,

01:13:45:17 , 01:13:49:13 , rather than going on your own armchair evaluation of what you've read or heard?

01:13:49:13 , 01:13:53:12 , In WWII, if Germany's threat to the world justified the Manhattan Project,

01:13:53:12 , 01:13:57:17 , why wouldn't global climate change's threat to the world justify a similar effort now?

01:13:57:17 , 01:13:59:17 , Just because it doesn't have a mustache?

01:13:59:17 , 01:14:02:05 , Look, Hitler himself was undeniably real,

01:14:02:05 , 01:14:03:26 , but him developing the atomic bomb—

01:14:03:26 , 01:14:07:02 , which I understand was the threat we were reacting to with the Manhattan Project—

01:14:07:02 , 01:14:08:13 , was just a possibility.

01:14:08:13 , 01:14:11:04 , No one—no scientist or policy maker—

01:14:11:04 , 01:14:13:24 , knew for sure that such a bomb was even possible.

01:14:13:24 , 01:14:16:10 , The scientific issue was uncertain.

01:14:16:10 , 01:14:18:24 , Yet we took action, in spite of that uncertainty,

01:14:18:24 , 01:14:21:28 , because the risks of not taking action seemed far greater.

01:14:21:28 , 01:14:26:23 , Just the possibility that Hitler might get the bomb was enough to justify all-out action.

01:14:26:23 , 01:14:28:16 , Why not here?

01:14:29:08 , 01:14:33:13 , Paying for a Manpollo Project is not going to be the end of the world as we know it.

01:14:33:13 , 01:14:35:27 , But not paying for one, might be.

01:14:36:10 , 01:14:37:22 , Let's get to it.

 

 Comments:

I've put the titles of each videos in red in order to be translated exactly the same in each video.

Back to Translation Index