Subtitles for "Nature of Science" part 1 in English (masterlist)

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00:00:04:03 , 00:00:10:01 , This video is called "Nature of Science" and is part of the expansion pack accompanying the original video "How It All Ends".
00:00:10:01 , 00:00:11:30 , This video will explore the nature of science a bit,
00:00:11:30 , 00:00:15:05 , looking at how it is unavoidably tentative and uncertain.
00:00:15:05 , 00:00:17:21 , The purpose is so that we can then do a better job of putting
00:00:17:21 , 00:00:20:23 , into context the things we hear about the science of global climate change.
00:00:20:23 , 00:00:22:03 , Let's start out with my assumptions.
00:00:22:03 , 00:00:24:27 , If we're talking about the meaning of life, then science can be informative,
00:00:24:27 , 00:00:29:12 , but is just one tool of many equally valid ones, like faith, love, and direct experience.
00:00:29:12 , 00:00:32:12 , But when we're talking about trying to predict and manipulate the physical world,
00:00:32:12 , 00:00:36:12 , I think that science is our best bet. It's certainly got by far the best success rate.
00:00:36:12 , 00:00:40:22 , As Carl Sagan observed, "If you want to know when the next eclipse of the Sun will be,
00:00:40:22 , 00:00:44:03 , you might try magicians or mystics, but you'll do much better with scientists.
00:00:44:03 , 00:00:48:05 , They can routinely predict a solar eclipse to the minute, a millennium in advance.
00:00:48:05 , 00:00:51:16 , If you want to save your child from polio, you can pray, or you can inoculate.
00:00:51:16 , 00:00:57:17 , No other human institution comes close to science's ability to foretell future events."
00:00:57:17 , 00:00:59:21 , So I'm not worshipping at the alter of science.
00:00:59:21 , 00:01:01:25 , I'm just saying, it's got by far the best track record
00:01:01:25 , 00:01:06:12 , for figuring out what happened, what is happening, and what's going to happen in the physical world.
00:01:06:12 , 00:01:07:22 , One more thing before we dive in:
00:01:07:22 , 00:01:11:15 , scientific thinking and critical thinking in my mind are essentially the same thing.
00:01:11:15 , 00:01:14:14 , So as I talk about how science goes about figuring out what to believe,
00:01:14:14 , 00:01:16:19 , underneath it all I am at the same time suggesting
00:01:16:19 , 00:01:21:05 , how we as individuals—as citizens—should go about deliberating issues.
00:01:21:05 , 00:01:25:07 , It's a well-established psychological phenomenon—and is, in fact, entirely human—
00:01:25:07 , 00:01:28:28 , to start out with your beliefs, and then go looking for evidence to support them.
00:01:28:28 , 00:01:31:02 , The problem is, we tend to forget or simply not hear
00:01:31:02 , 00:01:33:06 , the evidence that contradicts our beliefs.
00:01:33:06 , 00:01:35:09 , I mean, who wants to be shown that they're wrong?
00:01:35:09 , 00:01:38:06 , Formally, that phenomenon is called "confirmation bias".
00:01:38:06 , 00:01:41:10 , The devilish result is that if you're not diligently aware of it,
00:01:41:10 , 00:01:43:27 , you could be served up a plate of equally balanced evidence,
00:01:43:27 , 00:01:47:18 , and come out convinced that yours is the viewpoint that was better supported by the evidence,
00:01:47:18 , 00:01:51:05 , because you gave greater weight to the evidence that agreed with what you already believed,
00:01:51:05 , 00:01:54:28 , and discounted—or simply didn't hear—the evidence that contradicted it.
00:01:54:28 , 00:01:57:07 , So confirmation bias can serve to actually reinforce
00:01:57:07 , 00:01:59:27 , misconceptions in the face of evidence.
00:01:59:27 , 00:02:02:23 , That's why it's critical to be vigilant about it in your own thinking,
00:02:02:23 , 00:02:05:08 , and why you'll hear me refer to it again and again.
00:02:05:19 , 00:02:08:06 , In science—and in critical thinking—like we should all be trying
00:02:08:06 , 00:02:10:29 , to do in the whole climate change debate—it's the opposite.
00:02:10:29 , 00:02:14:04 , Instead of starting with beliefs and then looking for evidence to support it,
00:02:14:04 , 00:02:16:06 , you start by looking at whatever the evidence is,
00:02:16:06 , 00:02:18:16 , and then use that to form your beliefs.
00:02:18:16 , 00:02:21:03 , I think that's pretty much what a chemistry professor of mine once meant
00:02:21:03 , 00:02:23:02 , when he was teaching us about climate change.
00:02:23:02 , 00:02:25:26 , He said "Get informed, and let it change you."
00:02:25:26 , 00:02:27:18 , That's sort of the nutshell of how a good scientist might
00:02:27:18 , 00:02:29:14 , might go about advocating for something:
00:02:29:14 , 00:02:30:26 , he doesn't tell you what to believe.
00:02:30:26 , 00:02:32:25 , He just reminds you: start with the evidence,
00:02:32:25 , 00:02:35:15 , and move to belief, instead of the other way around.
00:02:35:15 , 00:02:38:14 , "That's exactly what I've been saying!" I can hear the shouting in my head right now,
00:02:38:14 , 00:02:42:17 , from some online commenters who've latched on to my previous videos about climate change.
00:02:42:17 , 00:02:44:10 , "Why don't we just go with the facts?"
00:02:44:10 , 00:02:47:15 , Hey, sounds good to me. Simple, right? Just go with the facts?
00:02:47:15 , 00:02:50:15 , The sticky part is determining what exactly are the facts.
00:02:50:15 , 00:02:53:22 , Here's my example. I'll give a series of increasingly complex statements,
00:02:53:22 , 00:02:57:06 , and you think about at what point we can no longer simple agree it's a fact,
00:02:57:06 , 00:02:59:03 , and instead have to do some interpreting.
00:02:59:28 , 00:03:02:27 , I have a candle sitting in front of me. Obvious fact.
00:03:02:27 , 00:03:04:05 , The candle is burning.
00:03:04:05 , 00:03:07:10 ,  Hopefully you can see that on low resolution so, reasonable fact.
00:03:07:10 , 00:03:08:16 , I'm sitting in a chair.
00:03:08:16 , 00:03:11:01 , Well here, you might ask for more evidence before you pronounce it fact,
00:03:11:01 , 00:03:12:28 ,  because you can't see it, so how about I show you.
00:03:13:13 , 00:03:16:09 , Okay, with a little checking—fact.
00:03:16:27 , 00:03:19:09 , Except the problem is, I'm not really sitting in the chair,
00:03:19:09 , 00:03:21:16 , because what is really on an atomic level,
00:03:21:16 , 00:03:24:29 , is that my outer electrons are repelling the outer electrons of the chair
00:03:24:29 , 00:03:28:12 , strongly enough that I am actually hovering imperceptibly above it,
00:03:28:12 , 00:03:32:04 , just like magnets can push on each other without actually touching.
00:03:32:19 , 00:03:33:12 , Okay.
00:03:34:09 , 00:03:37:15 , "Don't be such a dork," you say. "Some things are just obvious, you're being tricky."
00:03:37:15 , 00:03:38:26 , Some things are just obvious.
00:03:38:26 , 00:03:42:07 , Well, one of my favorite quotes about that—being obvious that is—
00:03:44:25 , 00:03:46:16 , comes from Buckminster Fuller.
00:03:48:29 , 00:03:51:21 , In fact, my students have to walk underneath the quote…
00:03:53:06 , 00:03:54:14 , …to get into my room.
00:03:55:14 , 00:03:57:28 , He said "Everything you learned about…
00:03:59:01 , 00:04:00:20 , the universe as 'obvious'…
00:04:01:10 , 00:04:03:05 , becomes less and less obvious…
00:04:03:17 , 00:04:04:25 , as you being to study it."
00:04:06:05 , 00:04:07:11 , And Galileo said
00:04:08:13 , 00:04:10:12 , "The truth can sometimes be deceptive.
00:04:11:16 , 00:04:15:04 , I once looked down from the mast of a ship departing a harbor and thought,
00:04:15:04 , 00:04:17:00 , look there, the shore is moving."
00:04:20:21 , 00:04:22:03 , This becomes a central point.
00:04:22:03 , 00:04:24:22 , Because, while we may all agree that—for all intents and purposes—
00:04:24:22 , 00:04:27:27 , I am sitting in this chair, when we shout at each other about
00:04:27:27 , 00:04:31:12 , the globe is warming or not, it turns out both claims are subject to the same question:
00:04:31:12 , 00:04:34:16 , how are we to decide whether something is a fact or not?
00:04:34:16 , 00:04:36:16 , It's not always as clear cut as we'd like.
00:04:37:02 , 00:04:38:14 , This may seem like splitting hairs,
00:04:38:14 , 00:04:40:09 , but it becomes kind of import if you have a question
00:04:40:09 , 00:04:42:22 , about a complex system or a really important issue, like:
00:04:42:22 , 00:04:45:26 , Gee, is that asteroid going to hit the Earth or barely miss?
00:04:45:26 , 00:04:49:04 , Is this case of bird flu a human–to–human transmission or not?
00:04:49:04 , 00:04:50:25 , Is the globe warming or not?
00:04:50:25 , 00:04:52:26 , Are we the ones doing it or not?
00:04:52:26 , 00:04:56:02 , "Sophistry!" you cry. "We can just look at the evidence."
00:04:56:02 , 00:04:58:12 , Well, problem is, evidence still needs to be interpreted,
00:04:58:12 , 00:05:00:19 , which can be done poorly or skillfully.
00:05:00:19 , 00:05:02:09 , You see webbed foot tracks in the hall,
00:05:02:09 , 00:05:04:01 , come across a shimmery green feather,
00:05:04:01 , 00:05:05:12 ,  and hear a quacking sound.
00:05:05:12 , 00:05:08:14 , You conclude there must have been a mallard duck who recently went by.
00:05:08:14 , 00:05:10:20 , It's obvious, based on the evidence.
00:05:10:20 , 00:05:13:21 , But is it possible it's actually a kind of duck you've never seen before,
00:05:13:21 , 00:05:15:26 , and had you been better trained as an ornithologist,
00:05:15:26 , 00:05:18:14 , you would have known that the green was slightly the wrong hue for a mallard,
00:05:18:14 , 00:05:20:04 , and the tracks a little too big?
00:05:20:04 , 00:05:24:15 , Interpreting evidence well takes skill, training, and experience.
00:05:24:15 , 00:05:27:14 , You wouldn't propose lowering prescription drug costs by hiring my high school
00:05:27:14 , 00:05:30:24 , chemistry students instead of people with Ph.D.s to research the drugs, would you?
00:05:30:24 , 00:05:33:11 , They both look at the same printouts from the same machines,
00:05:33:11 , 00:05:34:25 , they both look at the same evidence,
00:05:34:25 , 00:05:37:15 , who's interpretation of the evidence are you going to trust?
00:05:37:15 , 00:05:39:20 , "Well then, let me do it myself," you say.
00:05:39:20 , 00:05:41:06 , Um—go for it.
00:05:41:06 , 00:05:43:15 , But then don't be expecting me to accept your drugs,
00:05:43:15 , 00:05:46:15 , which is the case with climate change, since it's global,
00:05:46:15 , 00:05:48:28 , which means you're not the only one affected by your decision.
00:05:48:28 , 00:05:50:26 , I'll stick with the professionals, thanks.
00:05:51:03 , 00:05:52:29 , Here's an example I often give my students.
00:05:52:29 , 00:05:55:12 , I tell them we're going to get creamed in Friday night's football game,
00:05:55:12 , 00:05:56:14 , because—have they heard?—
00:05:56:14 , 00:06:01:02 , the opposing side's offensive line has an average weight of just over 300 pounds!
00:06:01:02 , 00:06:02:06 , That usually worries them,
00:06:02:06 , 00:06:09:15 , and then I tell them that the linemen weigh 110, 103, 98, 97, and 1120 pounds.
00:06:09:15 , 00:06:13:12 , This leads to a discussion of the difference between the "mean" average and the "median" average,
00:06:13:12 , 00:06:16:06 , and it gets them to question their faith a little bit in the reality
00:06:16:06 , 00:06:20:01 , so obviously implied by such a simple number as "the average".
00:06:20:01 , 00:06:22:16 , If something as simple as the average can be so tricky,
00:06:22:16 , 00:06:26:19 , how come we're okay with Jo Schmoes like you and I doing armchair analysis of climate science—
00:06:26:19 , 00:06:28:29 , one of the most complex topics in human history—
00:06:28:29 , 00:06:30:29 , instead of leaving it up to the scientists?
00:06:31:14 , 00:06:33:24 , Why does evidence need expertise to interpret?
00:06:33:24 , 00:06:37:13 , Well, because things are almost always way more complicated then they seem.
00:06:37:13 , 00:06:40:27 , I once cornered a Yale University particle physicist at a wedding reception,
00:06:40:27 , 00:06:42:22 , cuz even though I teach physics and chemistry,
00:06:42:22 , 00:06:45:16 , I've always got some questions myself, and no on around to answer them.
00:06:45:16 , 00:06:49:06 , Anyway, I asked him how big an electron really is.
00:06:49:06 , 00:06:52:15 , I'd been wanting to know for a while, so I was determined to get a solid answer.
00:06:52:15 , 00:06:55:20 , Well, and hour and several diagram–covered napkins later,
00:06:55:20 , 00:06:58:21 , I finally got him to grudgingly assent to a single sentence answer
00:06:58:21 , 00:07:01:08 , that we'd negotiated like it was a UN treaty.
00:07:01:08 , 00:07:04:04 , Turns out, the deeper you go, or the bigger the system—like climate—,
00:07:04:04 , 00:07:07:20 , the less accessible the "evidence" is to easy interpretation.
00:07:07:20 , 00:07:10:13 , Fair warning: if you're an expert in some field of the physical sciences,
00:07:10:13 , 00:07:12:18 , you'll probably want to avoid me at parties.
00:07:13:03 , 00:07:15:23 , "Yeah, but not everything is as complex as climate," you say.
00:07:15:23 , 00:07:19:12 , You're right, some things are simpler, like 1+1=2.
00:07:19:12 , 00:07:21:25 , Here's Bertrand Russell and Alfred North Whitehead's proof
00:07:21:25 , 00:07:24:10 , of that self-evident mathematical statement.
00:07:25:05 , 00:07:28:21 , This is part of why all science is inherently uncertain, and tentative.
00:07:28:21 , 00:07:31:08 , Because the world is tremendously complex.
00:07:31:08 , 00:07:32:26 , So how do we get any answers?
00:07:32:26 , 00:07:37:05 , Well, you delve as far into the complexity as you need to for your purposes, and then you quit,
00:07:37:05 , 00:07:40:10 , or as far as you can get with your measuring instruments, and then you quit,
00:07:40:10 , 00:07:42:07 , and then you make an explicit statement of how close
00:07:42:07 , 00:07:44:16 , you think you probably got to the "true value",
00:07:44:16 , 00:07:46:26 , acknowledging that you'll never get there.
00:07:46:26 , 00:07:50:04 , The goal, of course, is to make that uncertainty as small as possible.
00:07:50:04 , 00:07:51:30 , There's a couple basic ways of doing that.
00:07:51:30 , 00:07:54:12 , The first is to be very careful about what biases—
00:07:54:12 , 00:07:57:16 , or preconceived notions—the scientist brings to the table.
00:07:57:16 , 00:08:00:12 , The scientists Konrad Lorenz summed up that duty when he wrote:
00:08:00:12 , 00:08:02:22 , "It is a good morning exercise for a research scientist
00:08:02:22 , 00:08:06:15 , to discard a pet hypothesis every day before breakfast."
00:08:07:15 , 00:08:08:15 , Why?
00:08:08:15 , 00:08:10:25 , Because if you aren't aware of your preconceived notions,
00:08:10:25 , 00:08:13:20 , then you are susceptible to the trap of confirmation bias—
00:08:13:20 , 00:08:15:25 , starting with belief, and then looking for evidence,
00:08:15:25 , 00:08:17:15 , rather than the other way around.
00:08:17:28 , 00:08:20:23 , This can be insidious, because you don't realize you're doing it,
00:08:20:23 , 00:08:23:15 , and as a result, you become more confident of your conclusions
00:08:23:15 , 00:08:25:15 , than the evidence really merits.
00:08:25:15 , 00:08:27:27 , The author Douglas Adams put it perfectly when he observed that
00:08:27:27 , 00:08:30:17 , "assumptions are the things you don't realize you have."
00:08:30:17 , 00:08:32:15 , That's what that whole candle things was about.
00:08:32:15 , 00:08:33:28 , Let's see a couple more examples.
00:08:33:28 , 00:08:35:14 , You'll probably be on your guard now,
00:08:35:14 , 00:08:38:02 , but see if you can do more than just avoid being tricked.
00:08:38:02 , 00:08:42:19 , See if you can identify the assumptions you hold that allow me to mislead you.
00:08:43:06 , 00:08:45:24 , If I asked you to make some simple observations about what you see,
00:08:45:24 , 00:08:48:02 , you might say that I'm sitting in a chair in front of a whiteboard,
00:08:48:02 , 00:08:49:24 , which has an incorrect equation on it,
00:08:49:24 , 00:08:52:28 , and that my daughter's toy is missing a green piece.
00:08:53:15 , 00:08:57:01 , Well, if you want to figure out the tricks and assumptions yourself push the pause button now.
00:08:57:01 , 00:08:59:21 , Because, we've already established that I'm not really sitting in the chair—
00:08:59:21 , 00:09:01:24 , I'm hovering imperceptibly above it.
00:09:01:24 , 00:09:03:29 , And what if I told you that this isn't in fact a whiteboard—
00:09:03:29 , 00:09:06:00 , it's a shower-board from Home Depot?
00:09:06:00 , 00:09:06:26 , Budget cuts.
00:09:06:26 , 00:09:12:05 , Or that I'm not missing a green piece, but a blue one?
00:09:13:22 , 00:09:18:03 , Or that this is "base two" math, and therefore a correct equation,
00:09:18:03 , 00:09:20:19 , and it was you who brought a wrong assumption to it—
00:09:20:19 , 00:09:21:22 , that it was standard "base 10"—
00:09:21:22 , 00:09:25:13 , so that you were the one who was wrong, even as you pointed your finger at me?
00:09:25:13 , 00:09:27:12 , And I bet you thought this was a fancy hat.
00:09:27:12 , 00:09:30:12 , Guess what, it's just folded newspaper.
00:09:30:12 , 00:09:31:21 , I totally got you on that one.
00:09:32:09 , 00:09:34:23 , In each case, you make an unconscious assumption,
00:09:34:23 , 00:09:40:16 , which leads you from "the evidence", to a totally incorrect conclusion.
00:09:40:16 , 00:09:42:04 , Not because you're dumb,
00:09:42:04 , 00:09:44:10 , but because you didn't have the appropriate training
00:09:44:10 , 00:09:47:14 , or experience to be qualified to interpret the evidence.
00:09:47:29 , 00:09:49:29 , So in scientific or critical thinking,
00:09:49:29 , 00:09:53:17 , you take great pains to identify the assumptions you don't realize you have,
00:09:53:17 , 00:09:54:25 , so that you can account for them,
00:09:54:25 , 00:09:58:01 , and not wind up with a wrong conclusion when you interpret the evidence.
00:09:58:01 , 00:10:01:12 , Okay, okay, you're saying. Let me try another one. I'm ready this time.
00:10:01:12 , 00:10:04:23 , Okay, this time you'll need a pencil or a pen, and a piece of paper.
00:10:04:23 , 00:10:06:29 , Hit the pause button while you go get one.
00:10:09:13 , 00:10:12:21 , What I'm going to do is flash an image on the screen for just an instant.
00:10:12:21 , 00:10:16:07 , Your job is to reproduce it as accurately as you can on your paper.
00:10:16:07 , 00:10:18:29 , I'll just flash it for an instant, and no fair using the pause button.
00:10:18:29 , 00:10:20:23 , Ready? Here we go.
00:10:22:03 , 00:10:25:02 , Okay, now press the pause button again, and do your drawing.
00:10:25:02 , 00:10:27:18 , When you're done drawing, play the video again.
00:10:32:24 , 00:10:35:14 , Okay, have you reproduced faithfully what you saw?
00:10:35:14 , 00:10:37:24 , Here it is again. See how you did.
00:10:39:14 , 00:10:42:10 , If you got it right, that means you're thinking more like a scientist,
00:10:42:10 , 00:10:44:19 , trying to be deliberately conscious of your assumptions.
00:10:44:19 , 00:10:45:20 , Well done.
00:10:45:20 , 00:10:47:19 , Most people write "Paris in the Spring",
00:10:47:19 , 00:10:50:17 , when it quite clearly says "Paris in the the Spring".
00:10:50:17 , 00:10:51:19 , Why?
00:10:51:19 , 00:10:53:13 , Because the human brain is amazing.
00:10:53:13 , 00:10:55:28 , When it doesn't have the opportunity to fully examine something—
00:10:55:28 , 00:10:59:01 , a picture, a sound, a social interaction, a political problem—
00:10:59:01 , 00:11:01:24 , it fills in the blanks using past experience.
 
 
 

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