Subtitles for "I Hope I'm Wrong" in English (masterlist)

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01:00:04:00 , 01:00:06:29 , This video is titled "How It All Ends: I Hope I'm Wrong,"
01:00:06:29 , 01:00:10:18 , and is the second of three prepared especially for you hardcore climate skeptics
01:00:10:18 , 01:00:13:11 , in the expansion pack to the video "How It All Ends".
01:00:13:11 , 01:00:16:27 , I want to show you that I think a lot about the question "What if I'm wrong?"
01:00:16:27 , 01:00:22:15 , To be totally frank, my purpose in doing so is that I hope to inspire you to do the same for your own thinking.
01:00:22:15 , 01:00:24:22 , Because, although I hope I'm wrong,
01:00:24:22 , 01:00:27:24 , I think you're wrong.|How's that for clear?
01:00:28:11 , 01:00:32:15 , It seems to me that being honest with yourself means being willing to acknowledge when you're wrong,
01:00:32:15 , 01:00:34:15 , and then fixing it, so that you are less wrong.
01:00:34:15 , 01:00:39:12 , I'm wrong all the time, and by being conscious of that, I think I get better and better all the time.
01:00:39:12 , 01:00:41:07 , So could I be wrong about this?
01:00:41:07 , 01:00:43:15 , Let me tell you—I sure hope I am.
01:00:43:15 , 01:00:45:28 , But I haven't been able to escape this conclusion.
01:00:45:28 , 01:00:50:21 , And as time has gone, my assessment has done the same thing as that of the scientists studying climate change—
01:00:50:21 , 01:00:52:21 , the picture just gets worse.
01:00:52:21 , 01:00:55:29 , I used to get wound up about all sorts of issues, but I don't anymore.
01:00:55:29 , 01:00:58:16 , You know why?|Because I'm terrified.
01:00:58:16 , 01:01:02:02 , It's become clear to me that the potential threat is big enough
01:01:02:02 , 01:01:05:21 , that nothing is more worth dealing with than this.
01:01:05:21 , 01:01:09:10 , So in an ironic—and bizarre—sense,
01:01:09:10 , 01:01:13:03 , having a fairly deep understanding of climate change has really mellowed me out.
01:01:13:03 , 01:01:16:02 , I used to regularly read letters to the editor and get all ticked off.
01:01:16:02 , 01:01:19:03 , Now I never even open to that page.
01:01:19:03 , 01:01:23:07 , Pretty much all other concerns have dropped away, because this issue has the potential to
01:01:23:07 , 01:01:27:22 , so dominate our—my, my kids'—future.
01:01:27:22 , 01:01:31:19 , It's almost a sense of: nothing else may matter if we don't deal with this.
01:01:31:19 , 01:01:34:04 , And if you've watched all my videos up to this one,
01:01:34:04 , 01:01:39:03 , I think you'll see that it's not just a knee-jerk reaction to some sensationalist magazine article.
01:01:39:03 , 01:01:42:01 , I've done a bit of homework.|I teach science.
01:01:42:01 , 01:01:45:11 , I have a fairly deep understanding of the basic principles,
01:01:45:11 , 01:01:48:17 , though I also try to recognize when my knowledge falls short.
01:01:48:17 , 01:01:53:15 , My terror results from my own cold, rational assessment of the science of climate change
01:01:53:15 , 01:01:58:28 , and complex, non-linear systems, not from someone's scare tactics or appeals to my emotions.
01:01:58:28 , 01:02:02:12 , They didn't need to appeal: I was already paying attention.
01:02:03:02 , 01:02:06:21 , A while ago I noticed something that I still haven't quite been able to figure out.
01:02:06:21 , 01:02:09:18 , I realized that when I'm debating climate change with someone,
01:02:09:18 , 01:02:14:13 , I'm hoping to change their minds, but at the same time I sincerely hope that my arguments are wrong.
01:02:14:13 , 01:02:15:20 , It's kind of odd.
01:02:15:20 , 01:02:19:06 , And I don't sense that the other person can say the same thing about their arguments.
01:02:19:06 , 01:02:21:12 , It was sort of a "huh" moment,
01:02:21:12 , 01:02:26:10 , though it's since grown into this sense that there must be some significance to it, but I can't figure out what that would be.
01:02:26:10 , 01:02:30:08 , I mean, isn't it a little odd to find yourself arguing vehemently for a point of view,
01:02:30:08 , 01:02:32:27 , and you just as vehemently hope you're wrong?
01:02:32:27 , 01:02:34:27 , It's sort of a strange feeling.
01:02:35:19 , 01:02:38:16 , An interesting exercise is to ask yourself this:
01:02:38:16 , 01:02:42:23 , In 20 years, how would I feel if I turned out to be wrong?
01:02:42:23 , 01:02:46:02 , Personally, I'd be thrilled.|Drinks will be on me.
01:02:46:02 , 01:02:51:03 , I'd even feel okay about any economic damage that happened as a result of mistakenly taking action,
01:02:51:03 , 01:02:53:16 , because I'd feel that I'd done my best.
01:02:53:16 , 01:02:57:16 , I haven't stopped at the first answer that made sense, or that I liked the sound of.
01:02:57:16 , 01:02:59:16 , I looked for the rebuttal to that answer,
01:02:59:16 , 01:03:03:13 , and then the response to that rebuttal, and then the critique of that response.
01:03:03:13 , 01:03:07:23 , I made as thorough and conscientious of an effort as can be expected of anybody.
01:03:07:23 , 01:03:11:00 , I tried to be as uncomfortable self-critical as possible
01:03:11:00 , 01:03:14:21 , so that I could root out my assumptions and unconscious biases,
01:03:14:21 , 01:03:19:06 , to be sure that in my research my goal really was to get closer to the truth,
01:03:19:06 , 01:03:22:06 , rather than just to retain my beliefs.
01:03:22:06 , 01:03:30:07 , And after all that, my evaluation says that the risk of not taking action is definitely greater than the risk of taking action.
01:03:30:07 , 01:03:36:22 , Sorry, the risk of not taking action is clearly greater than the risk of taking action.
01:03:37:15 , 01:03:42:03 , I'm certainly no expert, but I've spent literally hundreds of hours researching and studying.
01:03:42:03 , 01:03:46:26 , Yeah, it's exhausting, which is why I don't do that for the debate in the chemistry education community
01:03:46:26 , 01:03:51:06 , over why Mentos causes Diet Coke to go wild—because it's just not that important.
01:03:51:06 , 01:03:58:00 , But since global climate change can't be dismissed as "certainly not a threat", I think the time is worth it.
01:03:58:00 , 01:04:00:14 , There are many possible future worlds.
01:04:00:14 , 01:04:04:29 , Imagine for a moment you're in the one where catastrophic climate change has come to pass,
01:04:04:29 , 01:04:09:15 , wrecking the economy, leading to brutal dictatorships, and so on.
01:04:09:15 , 01:04:14:01 , Now imagine looking back on this moment, when you had enough information to connect the dots,
01:04:14:01 , 01:04:19:05 , but you argued against action because you weren't sufficiently convinced it was even possible.
01:04:19:05 , 01:04:21:12 , You were afraid that it might hurt the economy,
01:04:21:12 , 01:04:23:19 , or give the government more power.
01:04:23:19 , 01:04:29:22 , Looking around in that future at the economic ruins and the draconian governments, how would that feel?
01:04:29:22 , 01:04:33:23 , Maybe I'm wrong. What might be the worst consequences of that?
01:04:33:23 , 01:04:37:22 , Maybe you're wrong. What might be the worst consequences of that?
01:04:38:12 , 01:04:41:08 , As you probably picked up from watching the previous videos,
01:04:41:08 , 01:04:44:16 , I'm pretty big on the idea of trying to be aware of one's biases.
01:04:44:16 , 01:04:48:10 , I mention it here because I think that's often the cause when we turn out to be wrong—
01:04:48:10 , 01:04:53:16 , a bias we didn't know we had, interfering with our judgement about things that seemed obvious.
01:04:53:16 , 01:04:57:08 , And the really dangerous part is that these biases can be so bloody stealthy,
01:04:57:08 , 01:05:03:03 , so in the moment it doesn't even occur for you to ask if you're being objective,
01:05:03:03 , 01:05:07:27 , and all the while you're carrying an unknown assumption that totally throws off your judgement.
01:05:07:27 , 01:05:10:00 , Here's a graphically personal example.
01:05:10:00 , 01:05:12:09 , I'm 38 now and I don't exercise,
01:05:12:09 , 01:05:15:28 , but I used to be an athlete, and have always been blessed with a very forgiving metabolism,
01:05:15:28 , 01:05:20:18 , so my…widening…process has been extremely gradual.
01:05:20:18 , 01:05:25:13 , And—just like all you other humans—I have a deep psychological need to have a positive view of myself.
01:05:25:13 , 01:05:29:06 , As a result, when I happen to see myself in the mirror without a shirt on,
01:05:29:06 , 01:05:34:06 , I still occasionally catch myself thinking "Hey—not too shabby. You've still got a hint of a six pack."
01:05:34:06 , 01:05:38:18 , Six pack?!|Those aren't the edges of well defined muscles, those are rolls of fat!
01:05:38:18 , 01:05:40:09 , What am I, delusional?
01:05:40:09 , 01:05:42:09 , No—just human.
01:05:42:09 , 01:05:45:15 , The point is, our desire for something can be so strong
01:05:45:15 , 01:05:51:29 , that it totally influences what we think is a simple perception of reality—without us even realizing it.
01:05:51:29 , 01:05:54:04 , What does this have to do with climate change?
01:05:54:04 , 01:05:57:26 , I'm not saying that if you are still doubtful of climate change you must be delusional.
01:05:57:26 , 01:06:00:17 , Who am I to make that judgement, I am no professional.
01:06:00:17 , 01:06:05:15 , But I am saying, this is a powerful and stealthy psychological phenomenon.
01:06:05:15 , 01:06:08:03 , Isn't it worth taking a step back and examining
01:06:08:03 , 01:06:11:29 , so you can make yourself confident that it's not influencing your opinions.
01:06:11:29 , 01:06:15:06 , I try to do that every so often with my thoughts about climate change,
01:06:15:06 , 01:06:20:01 , because the stakes are so high I want to end up with the most robust, solid viewpoints I can,
01:06:20:01 , 01:06:24:00 , so that I don't find myself holding on to something flimsy just because I really like the idea,
01:06:24:00 , 01:06:26:08 , or I really dislike the alternative.
01:06:26:25 , 01:06:30:01 , Along those lines, I had an interesting experience recently.
01:06:30:01 , 01:06:35:24 , I'd been having an extensive back-and-forth debate by email with a climate skeptic who was civil and thoughtful.
01:06:35:24 , 01:06:41:13 , And fairly far into the conversation, I was trying to make sense of this long response of his. I just couldn't do it.
01:06:41:13 , 01:06:44:13 , I re-read and re-read, and was befuddled, thinking:
01:06:44:13 , 01:06:47:16 , he's all over the place—I just don't know how to respond to this.
01:06:47:16 , 01:06:51:18 , And then I thought—ahh, maybe that's a clue to examining my own thinking.
01:06:51:18 , 01:06:55:29 , Maybe he's being perfectly clear, and I don't know how to respond to it because he's right,
01:06:55:29 , 01:06:59:24 , and I just can't let myself see it.|So I approached the text again,
01:06:59:24 , 01:07:04:26 , this time able to hear what he had to say, instead of trying to deconstruct it to form a counterattack.
01:07:04:26 , 01:07:06:26 , Turns out I didn't think he was right after all.
01:07:06:26 , 01:07:11:19 , But taking the step back did allow me to figure out that the reason I didn't know how to respond
01:07:11:19 , 01:07:13:27 , was that I didn't think that I could ever convince him.
01:07:13:27 , 01:07:18:15 , He was starting from belief instead of evidence, which is simply impossible to refute.
01:07:18:15 , 01:07:20:24 , He finally admitted to something along those lines,
01:07:20:24 , 01:07:26:13 , writing "I just don't like the idea of politicians and an unelected bureaucracy making decisions
01:07:26:13 , 01:07:29:13 , based on special interest groups and prevailing political wind.
01:07:29:13 , 01:07:33:05 , Lol! Maybe I should have said that from the get go!"
01:07:33:05 , 01:07:37:02 , Like I said, a nice guy, but when you start from belief rather than evidence,
01:07:37:02 , 01:07:40:15 , you end up keeping or ignoring evidence as it fits your belief,
01:07:40:15 , 01:07:44:21 , which means you will never be convinced, no matter how compelling the evidence.
01:07:44:21 , 01:07:46:09 , We all do that sometimes.
01:07:46:09 , 01:07:49:16 , I'm just saying, if there was ever a time in our individual and collective lives
01:07:49:16 , 01:07:55:05 , to be extraordinarily careful to not make that mistake, it would be now, with this issue.
01:07:55:05 , 01:07:58:05 , Still, it was a good lesson for me, remembering it's a good
01:07:58:05 , 01:08:02:03 , to be willing to take a step back and ask myself "Could I be the one who's wrong here?"
01:08:02:03 , 01:08:05:03 , Trying to be as unbiased and intellectually honest as I can
01:08:05:03 , 01:08:07:24 , is a service I try to offer my opponents in a discussion,
01:08:07:24 , 01:08:10:08 , and I like to ask if they offer it to me in return.
01:08:10:08 , 01:08:14:10 , We all come out feeling less angry that way, and hopefully a bit closer to the truth.
01:08:15:02 , 01:08:18:18 , Finally, one more personal anecdote in humility.
01:08:18:18 , 01:08:22:05 , I teach high school chemistry, and I'm very thoughtful and cautious about safety.
01:08:22:05 , 01:08:26:14 , For example: late one night I was testing a demonstration in my classroom,
01:08:26:14 , 01:08:28:14 , and I knew I was all alone in the building.
01:08:28:14 , 01:08:32:22 , The demo involved big flame and glass, and I asked myself "What's the worst that could happen?"
01:08:32:22 , 01:08:35:22 , Well I could imagine the glass exploding while I was sitting right in front of it,
01:08:35:22 , 01:08:37:28 , and I thought through the worst-case scenarios.
01:08:37:28 , 01:08:40:29 , So in addition to the goggles, apron, gloves, and fire extinguisher,
01:08:40:29 , 01:08:43:19 , I wrapped cloth towels around my major pressure points
01:08:43:19 , 01:08:47:22 , so that I couldn't get a major artery cut and bleed to death before I could reach the phone to call for help.
01:08:47:22 , 01:08:50:17 , Extremely unlikely, but hey—why risk it?
01:08:50:17 , 01:08:54:01 , Anyway, this past Spring, for one of my "Patching Holes" videos,
01:08:54:01 , 01:08:57:25 , as followups to my "The Most Terrifying Video You Will Ever See".
01:08:57:25 , 01:09:00:19 , I was videotaping a bunch of flashy demos.
01:09:27:16 , 01:09:31:05 , Lets get a shot of that smoke up there.
01:09:31:05 , 01:09:35:21 , Oh, I think I'm going to leave for awhile while the soot settles.
01:10:03:01 , 01:10:05:23 , That right there…
01:10:05:23 , 01:10:11:14 , …is molten iron, no, sorry, solidified iron.
01:10:38:22 , 01:10:40:15 , Okay, this one doesn't have a source of ignition,
01:10:40:15 , 01:10:48:10 , it's just a mixture of —— ——, catalyzed by some ——
01:11:05:22 , 01:11:08:04 , Those sirens are not for me.
01:11:08:04 , 01:11:10:03 , In addition to all of these exploding demos,
01:11:10:03 , 01:11:15:21 , which went off like I expected them to—shattering glass and all—I did one that simply oozes.
01:11:34:27 , 01:11:39:13 , Now, like I said, I'm really cautious, and I think things through, and I know what I'm doing.
01:11:39:13 , 01:11:43:14 , This one gives off aerosolized concentrated sulfuric acid as a byproduct,
01:11:43:14 , 01:11:47:05 , so it's a good idea not to breathe it in, and I was doing it in the fume hood.
01:11:47:05 , 01:11:50:27 , I did three or four takes, each time setting aside the jar when I was done with it.
01:11:50:27 , 01:11:53:12 , So I'm done with all the takes, and everything went as expected,
01:11:53:12 , 01:11:58:16 , and I'm standing about 10 feet away from the fume hood, messing with the video camera, when a gunshot goes off.
01:11:58:16 , 01:12:02:03 , The jar that I had used 20 minutes before exploded like a bomb,
01:12:02:03 , 01:12:07:04 , shooting carbon gooed concentrated–acid-coated shards of glass the length of my forty foot room,
01:12:07:04 , 01:12:10:12 , including all along my left side from 10 feet away.
01:12:10:12 , 01:12:13:25 , Here's the aftermath in the fume hood after I came back the next day.
01:12:13:25 , 01:12:17:24 , Right after the explosion, I'd inspected the room to make sure everything was stable,
01:12:17:24 , 01:12:20:23 , and then I left to let it air out and let me settle down.
01:12:20:23 , 01:12:23:01 , Seemed like a good time to take a break.
01:12:23:01 , 01:12:26:14 , Now, I'm a pretty smart guy, and I've been doing this for a few years.
01:12:26:14 , 01:12:30:01 , This is a demo that oozes and sizzles. It doesn't explode.
01:12:30:01 , 01:12:33:17 , If someone had told me third hand that it had happened to their buddy's colleague,
01:12:33:17 , 01:12:36:13 , I would have been sure that they'd gotten their story mixed up,
01:12:36:13 , 01:12:42:07 , because I couldn't have even come up with an explanation that would have this demo exploding that violently.
01:12:42:07 , 01:12:44:11 , I would have judged it to be impossible.
01:12:44:11 , 01:12:45:25 , And I would have been wrong.
01:12:45:25 , 01:12:48:06 , Like we humans sometimes are.
01:12:48:06 , 01:12:54:13 , In fact it was only by being forced by the very undeniable evidence on my left side to acknowledge that it was possible,
01:12:54:13 , 01:12:58:12 , that I was even able to later construct a feasible explanation for what had happened,
01:12:58:12 , 01:13:04:10 , because I simply couldn't accept the conclusion "Nope, not possible" when my understanding of chemistry led me to that.
01:13:04:10 , 01:13:07:15 , The reason I'm telling you this is: when it exploded,
01:13:07:15 , 01:13:11:26 , I was still wearing all my safety equipment, even though I was finished with the demos.
01:13:11:26 , 01:13:15:10 , And boy, was I glad that I tend to play "better safe than sorry",
01:13:15:10 , 01:13:17:21 , rather than going with what's more convenient,
01:13:17:21 , 01:13:20:18 , so that I still had on the gear out of simple habit.
01:13:20:18 , 01:13:23:29 , Because then I was protected a bit from my misjudgment—
01:13:23:29 , 01:13:28:07 , a judgement I wasn't even aware I had made, because it was an assumption—
01:13:28:07 , 01:13:30:05 , by definition, unconscious.
01:13:30:05 , 01:13:34:12 , That's the insidious part. "Assumptions are the things you don't know you have."
01:13:34:12 , 01:13:37:13 , That is exactly why they can be so dangerous.
01:13:37:13 , 01:13:40:26 , Could you be holding any of those in the debate about climate change?
01:13:40:26 , 01:13:46:16 , If there's ever a time to be conscientiously self-critical, it is now, with this issue.
01:13:46:16 , 01:13:50:12 , So, I've learned it's in my interest to be brutally honest with myself and ask
01:13:50:12 , 01:13:53:24 , "What if I'm wrong? What would be the consequences then?"
01:13:53:24 , 01:13:57:08 , I try to employ that thoroughness and humility in my approach to the debate
01:13:57:08 , 01:13:59:28 , about what action to take about global climate change.
01:13:59:28 , 01:14:02:07 , Please, join me in that.
01:14:03:01 , 01:14:05:25 , And if not—still, well…
01:14:05:25 , 01:14:10:27 , Then I'll see you in your final video: "How It All Ends: No Holds Barred"
 

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