Subtitles for "How it all ends" in Dutch

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00:00:05:09 , 00:00:07:04 , Here's something I bet you haven't thought of…
00:00:07:09 , 00:00:09:09 , You know that whole shouting match about global warming?
00:00:09:09 , 00:00:11:09 , Yeah! And I'm sick of it!
00:00:11:19 , 00:00:13:10 , What's with the hat and smoke?
00:00:13:10 , 00:00:15:10 , I'll be playing devil's advocate.
00:00:15:25 , 00:00:18:29 , Lay off—it's the best I could do for horns and brimstone.
00:00:20:02 , 00:00:21:02 , Okay.
00:00:21:28 , 00:00:24:23 , I know it seems like such a noisy mess that it's easy to tune out.
00:00:24:23 , 00:00:26:06 , But here's a thought for you:
00:00:26:06 , 00:00:28:23 , while we debate whether humans can really change the climate or not,
00:00:28:23 , 00:00:31:00 , we are at the same time running the experiment.
00:00:31:00 , 00:00:35:17 , The kicker is, no matter what the ouctcome of the experiment, we're in the test tube!
00:00:35:17 , 00:00:39:24 , So it seems clear that we'd better get to the bottom of the controversy as quickly as possible.
00:00:39:24 , 00:00:43:02 , But how do you know which side to believe?
00:00:43:26 , 00:00:47:18 , Well, what if I told you I've got a way to look at it where you don't need to believe anyone,
00:00:47:18 , 00:00:50:16 , but you can still decide with confidence what we should do?
00:00:50:16 , 00:00:53:20 , What are you smokin'? That sounds impossible.
00:00:54:05 , 00:00:56:26 , Yeah, I thought so too, so I put it out there in a video
00:00:56:26 , 00:01:02:06 , and after being critiqued by thousands of people, I think I've now got a conclusion that is pretty much undeniable.
00:01:02:06 , 00:01:04:14 , We'll just see about that.
00:01:05:13 , 00:01:10:15 , So here's the reasoning in a nutshell. If you want more detail, watch for the index at the end of the video.
00:01:10:15 , 00:01:12:14 , First off, no one's perfect.
00:01:12:14 , 00:01:16:07 , So every choice you make brings with it a risk if your choice turns out to be a mistake.
00:01:16:07 , 00:01:18:21 , Given that, which risk would you rather take:
00:01:18:21 , 00:01:24:06 , listen to the activists and take big action now, risking the possible harm to the economy that the skeptics warn us about
00:01:24:06 , 00:01:26:23 , or listen to the skeptics and don't take big action now,
00:01:26:23 , 00:01:30:05 , risking the possible destruction and upheaval that the activists warn us about.
00:01:30:05 , 00:01:35:11 , Bottom line is, which is the more acceptable risk: the risk of taking action, or the risk of not taking action?
00:01:35:22 , 00:01:38:03 , Aw, geez—when you put it that way…
00:01:38:03 , 00:01:41:28 , Hey, don't just accept what I say! I'm just some guy. Think it through for yourself!
00:01:41:28 , 00:01:43:08 , Okay, okay.
00:01:43:08 , 00:01:45:29 , Wait a minute—global warming isn't caused by humans in the first place—
00:01:45:29 , 00:01:49:04 , I've seen lots of evidence for that. So you're presenting a false choice!
00:01:49:04 , 00:01:50:12 , Are you infallible?
00:01:50:12 , 00:01:51:00 , No.
00:01:51:00 , 00:01:52:07 , Could you be wrong?
00:01:52:07 , 00:01:53:09 , Yes.
00:01:53:13 , 00:01:57:01 , So the question "which is the more acceptable risk" still applies doesn't it?
00:01:57:01 , 00:01:59:17 , Fine!|But it's still a loaded question.
00:01:59:17 , 00:02:03:11 , Well, take a look at where the question came from, and see if you agree it's a valid one.
00:02:03:21 , 00:02:07:04 , If you need to make a decision when things are unclear—like we do with global warming
00:02:07:04 , 00:02:09:26 , —it's often useful to look at the different possibilities for the future.
00:02:09:26 , 00:02:13:20 , The first possibility is whether human-caused global warming turned out to be true or not.
00:02:13:20 , 00:02:17:27 , So lets put F for the future where it turned out to be false, and T for it turns out to be true.
00:02:17:27 , 00:02:20:09 , The other possibility is what action we end up taking.
00:02:20:09 , 00:02:25:01 , Let's make column A "yes" for significant action, and column B "no" for little to no significant action.
00:02:25:01 , 00:02:28:29 , So that gives us four boxes that spell out four different basic futures.
00:02:28:29 , 00:02:30:18 , What might each of these futures look like?
00:02:30:18 , 00:02:34:24 , First is the future where we did take action, and global warming turned out not to be real after all.
00:02:34:24 , 00:02:41:11 , Let's take the most pessimistic view there and say that all we get is a bunch of economic harm and zero positive benefits.
00:02:41:11 , 00:02:45:16 , How about this box? We didn't take action, and we didn't need to. Everybody celebrates:
00:02:45:16 , 00:02:50:05 , the skeptics because they were right, and the activists because it wasn't the end of the world after all.
00:02:50:05 , 00:02:54:15 , How about this box? We took action, and it was a good thing, too, because the doomsayers were right.
00:02:54:15 , 00:02:58:18 , We've still got the economic costs, but everyone's okay with that, because we saved our cookies.
00:02:58:18 , 00:03:03:24 , Now how about this box down here? We didn't take action but the doomsayers turned out to be right.
00:03:03:24 , 00:03:07:08 , Well, if we took the most pessimistic view up here we should do the same thing down here,
00:03:07:08 , 00:03:13:16 , and this you've heard before. We have environmental, political, social, public health, and economic disasters
00:03:13:16 , 00:03:16:01 , —on a global scale.|A disaster scenario.
00:03:16:01 , 00:03:19:14 , Now obviously this is grossly simplified. The smiley faces give that away.
00:03:19:14 , 00:03:23:08 , But we can say the future will fall roughly into one of these four boxes.
00:03:23:08 , 00:03:27:30 , Most of the shouting match is about trying to predict which row the future will fall into,
00:03:27:30 , 00:03:30:15 , which we can't know for certain until we actually get there.
00:03:30:15 , 00:03:35:13 , What we can know, because we control it, is which column the future will not fall into.
00:03:35:13 , 00:03:39:10 , Because by taking action or not, we are choosing a column,
00:03:39:10 , 00:03:41:27 , and that eliminates the risk in the other column.
00:03:41:27 , 00:03:46:06 , So it's a bit like buying a lottery ticket—we choose ticket A or ticket B
00:03:46:06 , 00:03:49:21 , and then wait to see what the laws of physics dish out as our result.
00:03:49:21 , 00:03:53:16 , One way or the other, we're taking a risk: so which risk is more acceptable,
00:03:53:16 , 00:03:56:18 , the risk of taking action, or the risk of not taking action?
00:03:57:00 , 00:03:59:14 , Hey…that sounds good, but the logic is bogus.
00:03:59:14 , 00:04:02:04 , Wouldn't that grid argue for action on any possible threat,
00:04:02:04 , 00:04:05:00 , no matter how costly the action, or how ridiculous the threat,
00:04:05:00 , 00:04:07:00 , even Giant Mutant Space Hamsters?
00:04:07:00 , 00:04:09:19 , Because it's better to go broke building a bunch of rodent traps
00:04:09:19 , 00:04:12:09 , than to even risk the possibility of being Hamster Chow, right?
00:04:12:09 , 00:04:16:08 , So this grid…is useless.
00:04:16:20 , 00:04:18:02 , Yeah, I totally agree with you.
00:04:18:02 , 00:04:18:21 , Huh?
00:04:18:21 , 00:04:20:30 , The grid by itself isn't a silver bullet.
00:04:20:30 , 00:04:24:27 , But what it does do is it allows us to make decisions using uncertain knowledge
00:04:24:27 , 00:04:28:09 , by changing the question from "Are humans affecting the climate?"
00:04:28:09 , 00:04:33:02 , to the real question "What's the wisest thing to do, given the uncertainties and the risks?"
00:04:33:02 , 00:04:35:07 , Really, it's just basic risk management.
00:04:35:07 , 00:04:39:11 , So to get around your hamster argument, we need to get a sense of how likely each row is.
00:04:39:11 , 00:04:42:05 , Why can't we just wait until the science is finished, and then we'll know what to do?
00:04:42:05 , 00:04:47:14 , Well for one thing, that doesn't avoid risk, because that's the same as just choosing column B which is where we sit right now.
00:04:47:14 , 00:04:50:10 , And for another thing, science is never finished—
00:04:50:10 , 00:04:52:19 , we're still studying the law of gravity for Pete's sake!
00:04:52:19 , 00:04:54:22 , As a science teacher, I can tell you that science—
00:04:54:22 , 00:04:59:17 , that most precise and geeky of all human endeavors—is surprisingly never certain!
00:04:59:17 , 00:05:04:20 , Every single scientific statement carries with it some sort of estimate of how big the uncertainty is.
00:05:04:20 , 00:05:09:05 , Which is part of why there will almost always be some disagreement on any scientific issue.
00:05:09:05 , 00:05:11:23 , So where does that leave us, if anything any scientist says
00:05:11:23 , 00:05:14:08 , is accompanied by a sort of "but I could be wrong"?
00:05:14:08 , 00:05:17:23 , The trick is to not look at what individual scientists are saying,
00:05:17:23 , 00:05:20:19 , but instead look at what the professional organizations are saying.
00:05:20:19 , 00:05:23:20 , The more prestigious they are, the more weight you can give their statements,
00:05:23:20 , 00:05:28:12 , because they've got huge reputations to uphold, and don't want to ever say something that later makes them look foolish.
00:05:28:12 , 00:05:33:22 , Probably the two most well-respected of these in the world are NAS, and AAAS.
00:05:33:22 , 00:05:37:22 , These are not advocacy groups, but both recently issued unprecedented statements
00:05:37:22 , 00:05:40:05 , calling for big action now on global warming.
00:05:40:05 , 00:05:43:14 , This isn't a bunch of hippies. These are the nerdiest people on the planet.
00:05:43:14 , 00:05:45:06 , So trust the egghead, huh?
00:05:45:06 , 00:05:50:03 , Basically you're saying "If NAS and AAAS said so, who the heck are you to argue?"
00:05:50:03 , 00:05:51:28 , No. Well, sorta.
00:05:51:28 , 00:05:54:09 , I mean, who else are you going to believe on a scientific issue?
00:05:54:09 , 00:05:56:02 , But remember, you still don't have to believe them.
00:05:56:02 , 00:06:00:03 , You're just using the fact that two such stodgy institutions staked their reputations on this,
00:06:00:03 , 00:06:04:29 , to get a sense that this row must be way more likely than this row, pushing this line up.
00:06:04:29 , 00:06:09:22 , And, companies such as these are even calling for emissions caps—on their own industries!
00:06:09:22 , 00:06:11:12 , Pushing this line up even further.
00:06:11:12 , 00:06:15:17 , Now the conclusion is clear, because we've got our own solid reasons to believe that this
00:06:15:17 , 00:06:20:10 , must be a much more threatening risk than this—not only in likelihood, but in damage as well.
00:06:20:10 , 00:06:21:26 , Okay, I can see that.
00:06:21:26 , 00:06:24:04 , But if the statements from those groups are such a slam dunk,
00:06:24:04 , 00:06:25:28 , how come we still hear so much debate?
00:06:25:28 , 00:06:31:06 , Well, there is a handful of dissenting scientists—like there always is—and a media that knows that controversy sells.
00:06:31:06 , 00:06:34:06 , But I found a couple polls that suggest it's a lack of absolute certainty
00:06:34:06 , 00:06:36:19 , that's holding people back, which is a little odd to me.
00:06:36:19 , 00:06:39:18 , We buy car insurance without being certain that we'll get into an accident,
00:06:39:18 , 00:06:42:14 , because we want to make sure that if it does happen, we don't end up broke.
00:06:42:14 , 00:06:46:05 , And during WWII, just the possibility that Hitler might be developing an atomic bomb
00:06:46:05 , 00:06:48:21 , was enough of a threat to justify all-out action.
00:06:48:21 , 00:06:51:07 , If you were a voter back then and it was public knowledge,
00:06:51:07 , 00:06:53:18 , would you have insisted that every scientist interviewed
00:06:53:18 , 00:06:56:17 , thought such a bomb was possible before supporting the Manhattan Project?
00:06:56:17 , 00:06:59:02 , Would you have held out until you understood the physics?
00:06:59:02 , 00:07:02:17 , No. So why are Joe Schmoes like you and me still debating the finer points
00:07:02:17 , 00:07:05:10 , of climate science instead of talking about risk management?
00:07:05:10 , 00:07:08:27 , Well, there's a gajillion causes out there already screaming for my attention and money.
00:07:08:27 , 00:07:11:02 , "Save the Planet" and stuff.
00:07:11:22 , 00:07:15:21 , Look, it's not the planet that I care about. It'll do fine on its own.
00:07:15:21 , 00:07:17:21 , What I care about is saving our bacon.
00:07:17:21 , 00:07:20:14 , And I understand how overwhelming it is when you hear cries about
00:07:20:14 , 00:07:21:15 , save the whales,
00:07:21:15 , 00:07:22:14 , or the rainforests,
00:07:22:14 , 00:07:23:12 , or the children,
00:07:23:12 , 00:07:24:04 , or air pollution,
00:07:24:04 , 00:07:24:27 , water pollution,
00:07:24:27 , 00:07:25:12 , light pollution,
00:07:25:12 , 00:07:25:28 , toxic waste,
00:07:25:28 , 00:07:26:14 , nuclear waste,
00:07:26:14 , 00:07:26:28 , government waste,
00:07:26:28 , 00:07:27:13 , corporate waste,
00:07:27:13 , 00:07:27:27 , Peak Oil,
00:07:27:27 , 00:07:28:12 , Snake Oil,
00:07:28:12 , 00:07:28:23 , flag burning,
00:07:28:23 , 00:07:29:02 , wire-tapping,
00:07:29:02 , 00:07:29:14 , gay marrying,
00:07:29:14 , 00:07:29:27 , immigrating,
00:07:29:27 , 00:07:30:08 , ANWR,
00:07:30:08 , 00:07:30:19 , Anbar,
00:07:30:19 , 00:07:30:28 , gun rights,
00:07:30:28 , 00:07:31:07 , human rights,
00:07:31:07 , 00:07:31:18 , water rights,
00:07:31:18 , 00:07:31:29 , right to life,
00:07:31:29 , 00:07:32:13 , abortion rights.
00:07:33:02 , 00:07:34:29 , Where do you start?
00:07:34:29 , 00:07:37:09 , Let me suggest a way to prioritize.
00:07:37:09 , 00:07:38:17 , All of these…
00:07:41:06 , 00:07:44:17 , Peanuts, if the worst of this comes to happen.
00:07:44:17 , 00:07:46:15 , Oooo, way to go,|Mr. Smarty–Pants.
00:07:46:15 , 00:07:48:13 , You just managed to tick off pretty much everybody.
00:07:48:13 , 00:07:50:28 , How come your pet crusade trumps everone else's?
00:07:50:28 , 00:07:54:30 , Because even though it's not likely, if the worst of global warming does happen,
00:07:54:30 , 00:07:58:11 , we'll be so busy dealing with the fallout that most all other human concerns
00:07:58:11 , 00:08:00:23 , may seem like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
00:08:00:23 , 00:08:03:23 , I mean who's really going to care if some protester want to burn the flag
00:08:03:23 , 00:08:06:15 , on the courthouse lawn when the whole city's flooded?
00:08:06:15 , 00:08:10:02 , But why the hysteria? What's the big deal about a degree or two?
00:08:10:02 , 00:08:12:13 , Yeah. Turns out it's not the warming that gets ya.
00:08:12:13 , 00:08:15:17 , It's the way that such a quick change throws a monkey wrench in the whole system.
00:08:15:17 , 00:08:18:01 , That's why global "warming" is a misleading name,
00:08:18:01 , 00:08:20:06 , and global "climate change" is only a little better.
00:08:20:06 , 00:08:23:12 , Really, what we're talking about is "global climate destabilization."
00:08:23:12 , 00:08:27:19 , And it gets worse. Because in just the last 5 years we've learned that this may happen very abruptly,
00:08:27:19 , 00:08:29:19 , like within the span of a decade.
00:08:29:19 , 00:08:31:30 , So it may turn out to be like pushing on a light switch:
00:08:31:30 , 00:08:35:01 , small pushes in the past have produced small results,
00:08:35:01 , 00:08:38:10 , until you hit an unexpected tipping point.
00:08:38:10 , 00:08:40:10 , Man, we're totally hosed.
00:08:40:10 , 00:08:42:10 , We're going back to the Dark Ages, aren't we?
00:08:42:10 , 00:08:43:24 , Disturbing, isn't it?
00:08:43:24 , 00:08:46:06 , Actually, there's a lot of reason to believe we can fix this—
00:08:46:06 , 00:08:48:18 , maybe even without reducing our standard of living.
00:08:48:18 , 00:08:50:05 , If we're quick about it.
00:08:50:05 , 00:08:53:15 , But what do I do? I'm just one guy…with a stupid hat.
00:08:53:15 , 00:08:55:25 , What you do is—|spread the word!
00:08:55:25 , 00:08:59:23 , Because the only way we really get into column A…is by policy changes.
00:08:59:23 , 00:09:02:02 , And those only happen when enough people demand it.
00:09:02:02 , 00:09:04:23 , So we need nothing less than a change in the culture itself.
00:09:04:23 , 00:09:06:20 , And you can help make that happen.
00:09:06:20 , 00:09:10:05 , So you forward this video to others, and they forward it to ten, and so on.
00:09:10:05 , 00:09:14:07 , In just four steps, that's over ten thousand people that may have their opinions influenced.
00:09:14:07 , 00:09:16:13 , That's power. Use it.
00:09:16:13 , 00:09:20:01 , This is likely to be the greatest threat that humanity has ever faced.
00:09:20:01 , 00:09:22:19 , Think that's overblown? Maybe.
00:09:22:19 , 00:09:25:11 , But can you be so certain that you're willing to bet everything?
00:09:25:11 , 00:09:28:00 , Because we only get to run this experiment once.
00:09:28:00 , 00:09:31:24 , Hopefully this idea of risk management will be what ends the debate.
00:09:31:24 , 00:09:33:04 , How the world ends up?
00:09:33:04 , 00:09:37:04 , Well, that depends in part on you. And what you do next.
00:09:37:04 , 00:09:41:14 , We have greatness within us—innovative, giving, determined.
00:09:41:14 , 00:09:44:09 , It's time for the best in us to come out.
 

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