Die Auswirkungen auf Pflanzen in Europa:
Stuttgart/Hohenheim - Bericht von PROPLANTA - Dem Informationszentrum für die Landwirtschaft: Klimawandel schafft Probleme beim Pflanzenschutz - Landwirtschaft muss sich auf veränderte Situationen einstellen (24.11.2007)
M. Bakkenes, J. R. M. Alkemade, F. Ihle, R. Leemans, J. B. Latour. 2002. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050.
Global Change Biology 8 (4): 390
Wolfgang Cramer, Alberte Bondeau, F. Ian Woodward, I. Colin Prentice, Richard A. Betts, Victor Brovkin, Peter M. Cox, Veronica Fisher, Jonathan A. Foley, Andrew D. Friend, Chris Kucharik, Mark R. Lomas, Navin Ramankutty, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Smith, Andrew White, Christine Young-Molling. 2001. Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biology 7 (4), 357–373.
BioScience 55 (9). 2005: pp. 749–759 Forecasting Regional to Global Plant Migration in Response to Climate Change. RONALD P. NEILSON, LOUIS F. PITELKA, ALLEN M. SOLOMON, RAN NATHAN, GUY F. MIDGLEY, JÓSE M. V. FRAGOSO, HEIKE LISCHKE, and KEN THOMPSON
The rate of future climate change is likely to exceed the migration rates of most plant species. The replacement of dominant species by locally rare species may require decades, and extinctions may occur when plant species cannot migrate fast enough to escape the consequences of climate change. Such lags may impair ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration and clean water production. Thus, to assess global change, simulation of plant migration and local vegetation change by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) is critical, yet fraught with challenges. Global vegetation models cannot simulate all species, necessitating their aggregation into plant functional types (PFTs). Yet most PFTs encompass the full spectrum of migration rates. Migration processes span scales of time and space far beyond what can be confidently simulated in DGVMs. Theories about climate change and migration are limited by inadequate data for key processes at short and long time scales and at small and large spatial scales. These theories must be enhanced to incorporate species-level migration and succession processes into a more comprehensive definition of PFTs.
RALF OHLEMÜLLER, EMMANUEL S. GRITTI, MARTIN T. SYKES, CHRIS D. THOMAS (2006) . Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change .
Global Change Biology 12 (9), 1788–1799.
Abstract: Estimates of species extinction risk under climate change are generally based on differences in present and future climatically suitable areas. However, the locations of potentially suitable future environments (affecting establishment success), and the degree of climatic suitability in already occupied and new locations (affecting population viability) may be equally important determinants of risk. A species considered to be at low risk because its future distribution is predicted to be large, may actually be at high risk if these areas are out of reach, given the species' dispersal and migration rates or if all future suitable locations are only marginally suitable and the species is unlikely to build viable populations in competition with other species. Using bioclimatic models of 17 representative European woody species, we expand on current ways of risk assessment and suggest additional measures based on (a) the distance between presently occupied areas and areas predicted to be climatically suitable in the future and (b) the degree of change in climatic suitability in presently occupied and unoccupied locations. Species of boreal and temperate deciduous forests are predicted to face higher risk from loss of climatically suitable area than species from warmer and drier parts of Europe by 2095 using both the moderate B1 and the severe A1FI emission scenario. However, the average distance from currently occupied locations to areas predicted suitable in the future is generally shorter for boreal species than for southern species. Areas currently occupied will become more suitable for boreal and temperate species than for Mediterranean species whereas new suitable areas outside a species' current range are expected to show greater increases in suitability for Mediterranean species than for boreal and temperate species. Such additional risk measures can be easily derived and should give a more comprehensive picture of the risk species are likely to face under climate change.
LINDA J. BEAUMONT, A. J. PITMAN, MICHAEL POULSEN, LESLEY HUGHES (2007)
Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions
Global Change Biology 13 (7), 1368–1385.
Bioclimatic models are the primary tools for simulating the impact of climate change on species distributions. Part of the uncertainty in the output of these models results from uncertainty in projections of future climates. To account for this, studies often simulate species responses to climates predicted by more than one climate model and/or emission scenario. One area of uncertainty, however, has remained unexplored: internal climate model variability. By running a single climate model multiple times, but each time perturbing the initial state of the model slightly, different but equally valid realizations of climate will be produced. In this paper, we identify how ongoing improvements in climate models can be used to provide guidance for impacts studies. In doing so we provide the first assessment of the extent to which this internal climate model variability generates uncertainty in projections of future species distributions, compared with variability between climate models. We obtained data on 13 realizations from three climate models (three from CSIRO Mark2 v3.0, four from GISS AOM, and six from MIROC v3.2) for two time periods: current (1985–1995) and future (2025–2035). Initially, we compared the simulated values for each climate variable (P, Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean) for the current period to observed climate data. This showed that climates simulated by realizations from the same climate model were more similar to each other than to realizations from other models. However, when projected into the future, these realizations followed different trajectories and the values of climate variables differed considerably within and among climate models. These had pronounced effects on the projected distributions of nine Australian butterfly species when modelled using the BIOCLIM component of DIVA-GIS. Our results show that internal climate model variability can lead to substantial differences in the extent to which the future distributions of species are projected to change. These can be greater than differences resulting from between-climate model variability. Further, different conclusions regarding the vulnerability of species to climate change can be reached due to internal model variability. Clearly, several climate models, each represented by multiple realizations, are required if we are to adequately capture the range of uncertainty associated with projecting species distributions in the future.
DAVID K. SKELLY, LIANA N. JOSEPH, HUGH P. POSSINGHAM, L. KEALOHA FREIDENBURG, THOMAS J. FARRUGIA, MICHAEL T. KINNISON, ANDREW P. HENDRY (2007)
Evolutionary Responses to Climate Change. Conservation Biology 21 (5), 1353–1355.
Jonathan M. Levine, A. Kathryn McEachern, Clark Cowan (2008) .Rainfall effects on rare annual plants . Journal of Ecology
1365-2745
Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.
MATTHEW HURTEAU, MALCOLM NORTH (2008) Mixed-conifer understory response to climate change, nitrogen, and fire. Global Chnage Ecology 1365-2486
Prairies
H. WAYNE POLLEY, ALBERT B. FRANK, JOAQUIN SANABRIA, REBECCA L. PHILLIPS (2008) Interannual variability in carbon dioxide fluxes and flux-climate relationships on grazed and ungrazed northern mixed-grass prairie.Global Chnage Ecology. 1365-2486
REBECCA L. PHILLIPS, OFER BEERI (2008) Scaling-up knowledge of growing-season net ecosystem exchange for long-term assessment of North Dakota grasslands under the Conservation Reserve Program. Global Change Biology 14 (5) , 1008–1017
MARK J. HOVENDEN, P. C. D. NEWTON, R. A. CARRAN, P. THEOBALD, K. E. WILLS, J. K. VANDER SCHOOR, A. L. WILLIAMS, Y. OSANAI (2008) Warming prevents the elevated CO2-induced reduction in available soil nitrogen in a temperate, perennial grassland
Global Change Biology 14 (5) , 1018–1024.
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